Social Media Ethereum Price Prediction Challenge | bitgrit
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Social Media Ethereum Price Prediction Challenge

Predictive Power from Social Media Posts

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89 days to go
37 Participants
32 Submissions
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Brief

Do you have what it takes to tackle a real-world machine learning challenge? Welcome to the Social Media Ethereum Price Prediction Challenge, where participants compete to build the most accurate model predicting Ethereum’s price using social media data!

Ethereum (ETH) is the second-largest cryptocurrency, powering smart contracts, DeFi, and NFTs. Its price is highly influenced by public sentiment, news, and market trends—making it a fascinating challenge for data scientists!
You’ll work with a dataset of vectorized texts, including sentiment analysis, text length, and bias scores. Your mission? Develop a model that best predicts Ethereum’s price movements.

Join now and prove your predictive power in the crypto world! 

Prizes
  • 1st Prize: $1,500
     
  • 2nd Prize: $1,000
     
  • 3rd Prize: $500
Timeline
  • Competition Starts: June 15, 2025
     
  • Competition Ends: September 15, 2025
     
  • Winners Announced (Subject to change based on submission results): September 30, 2025
Data Breakdown

Downloadable file "social_media_eth_price_prediction.zip" includes the following files:

train.csv: file to train your machine learning model.

test.csv: file that can be used to test how well your model performs on unseen data. This is the file you're going to make predictions on with your trained model and create a submission file.

solution_format.csv: example of the format that the submission file needs to be in to be properly scored.
 
<Data Dictionary>

ID: Unique identifier for each data entry
target: Indicates whether Ethereum's price increased or decreased three days after the social media post (target variable).
length: Character count of the post.
sentiment: Indicates the emotional tone of the post, with a range from -1 to 1. A score of -1 indicates an extremely negative sentiment, whereas a score of 1 represents an extremely positive sentiment.
bias: Indicates the degree of bias in the post. A value of 0 signifies complete neutrality, while a value of 1 represents strong bias.
volume: Indicates if the transaction volume on the post date exceeded the 20-day moving average.
feature_0 ~ feature_299: Vectorized representation of the post text.

*The submission file should follow the same format as the example file (solution_format.csv). The submission file has 2 columns, one for id and one for value.
**Submissions are evaluated by "Accuracy".
***Final competition results are based on the Private Leaderboard results, and the winner will be the user at the top of the Private Leaderboard.

FAQs
Who do I contact if I need help regarding a competition?
For any inquiries, please contact us at [email protected]
How will I know if I've won?
If you are one of the top three winners for this competition, we will email you with the final result and information about how to claim your reward.
How can I report a bug?
Please shoot us an email at [email protected] with details and a description of the bug you are facing, and if possible, please attach a screenshot of the bug itself.
If I win, how can I receive my reward?
Prizes will be paid by bank transfer. If for some reason you are not able to accept payment by bank transfer, please let us know and we will do our best to accommodate your needs as possible.
Rules

1. This competition is governed by the following Terms of Participation. Participants must agree to and comply with these Terms to participate.

2. Users can make a maximum number of 5 submissions per day. If users want to submit new files after making 5 submissions in a day, they will have to wait until the following day to do so. Please keep this in mind when uploading a submission.csv file. Any attempt to circumvent stated limits will result in disqualification.

3. The use of external datasets is not allowed. (If it’s allowed, please go to the below section “Use of External datasets” to see what would be required from participants)

4. It is not allowed to upload the competition dataset to other websites. Users who do not comply with this rule will be disqualified.

5. A competition prize will be awarded after we have received, successfully executed, and confirmed the validity of both the code and the solution (See 6.). Once winners are announced and our team reaches out to them, the winners must provide the following by September 25, 2025 to be qualified as a competition winner and receive their prize:
a. All source files required to preprocess the data
b. All source files required to build, train and make predictions with the model using the processed data
c. A requirements.txt (or equivalent) file indicating all the required libraries and their versions as needed
d. A ReadMe file containing the following:
• Clear and unambiguous instructions on how to reproduce the predictions from start to finish including data pre-processing, feature extraction, model training, and predictions generation
• Environment details regarding where the model was developed and trained, including OS, memory (RAM), disk space, CPU/GPU used, and any required environment configurations required to execute the code
• Clear answers to the following questions:
- Which data files are being used?
- How are these files processed?
- What is the algorithm used and what are its main hyperparameters?
- Any other comments considered relevant to understanding and using the model

6. The submitted solution should be able to generate exactly the same output that gives the corresponding score on the leaderboard. If the score obtained from the code is different from what’s shown on the leaderboard, the new score will be used for the final rankings unless a logical explanation is provided. Please make sure to set the seed or random_state etc. so we can obtain the same result from your code. 

7. The final submission has to be selected manually before the end of the competition (you can select up to 2), or else it will be selected automatically based on your highest public score.

8. In order to be eligible for the prize, the competition winner must agree to transfer to the Host and the relevant transferee of rights in such Competition all transferable rights, such as copyrights, rights to obtain patents and know-how, etc. in and to all analysis and prediction results, reports, analysis and prediction model, algorithm, source code and documentation for the model reproducibility, etc., and the Submissions contained in the Final Submissions.

9. Any prize awards are subject to eligibility verification and compliance with these Terms of Participation. All decisions of bitgrit will be final and binding on all matters relating to this Competition.

10. Payments to winners may be subject to local, state, federal and foreign tax reporting and withholding requirements.

11. If two or more participants have the same score on the leaderboard, the participant who submitted the winning file first will be considered the winner.

12. All submissions must be made individually; no teams are allowed in this competition. Users who do not comply with this rule will be immediately disqualified in the case that we find the same or very similar scores and/or uploaded solutions.

13. If you have any inquiries about this competition, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected]
 

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